Toy fairs decide what reaches your shelf. Here is how to read one.

Almost everything you will be able to buy next year is already decided, months before it reaches a shop. A toy fair is where that happens. Makers show what they plan to release, buyers decide how much of it gets made, and the rest quietly does not get made at all. Japan's main toy fair runs Thursday 27 to Sunday 30 August at Tokyo Big Sight, and unlike most trade shows in this business, it opens the doors to the public for half of it.

What actually happens at a toy fair?

Makers show buyers what they plan to release. Retail chains, importers and distributors walk the floor and place orders. Those orders set the production runs. A line that pulls strong orders gets made in volume and reaches shelves across Asia. A line that does not gets cut, or stays inside Japan. By the time a figure appears in a shop near you, that call was made months earlier, in a room you were not in.

The Japan Toy Association, which runs the Tokyo show, counts 190 exhibiting companies this time, 111 from Japan and 79 from overseas, showing around 35,000 new toys.

Can you visit the Tokyo Toy Show yourself?

Yes, for two of the four days, and that is the unusual part. Thursday 27 and Friday 28 August are business days, trade and media only. Saturday 29 and Sunday 30 August are public days, open to anyone. Saturday runs 9am to 5pm and Sunday 9am to 4pm, in the West halls of Tokyo Big Sight.

Entry is free for middle school age and under. For high school age and up, an advance ticket is 2,000 yen, a ticket at the door is 2,200 yen, and a pass covering both public days is 3,600 yen. Last year the show drew 72,621 people across its four days, so treat the queue as real.

Why does the Japan Toy Award matter to a buyer?

The association announces its award winners on Wednesday 19 August, eight days before the doors open, and puts every winner together in one display at the venue. Read it as a shopping signal rather than a ceremony. Winners get pushed hardest by their makers and ordered in bigger quantities, which is exactly why you will keep seeing them for the rest of the year.

Who is the toy industry actually selling to now?

Adults, increasingly. The association's own market study puts Japan's toy market at about 1.17 trillion yen, up 106.3% on the year before, and a record for five straight years. Trading cards and card games account for close to 30% of that on their own. The association credits what it calls kidult demand, meaning adults buying for themselves, together with spending by visitors from overseas. If you have ever felt slightly strange buying a blind box as a grown adult, the industry has already made its peace with you.

Why will China's toy expo not let you in?

Because it was never built for you. The China Toy Expo runs in Shanghai each October and describes itself as a trade exhibition for professional buyers, close to 100,000 of them, from more than 130 countries. It is a business event first and last, and a lot of what eventually reaches Southeast Asia gets ordered there. We looked at that show and what it says about China's rise in a separate piece on collectibles.

What is Wonder Festival, and why is it different?

Wonder Festival is the one a lot of figure collectors watch, and it works on another model entirely. It runs at Makuhari Messe and is built around garage kits, figures made by professional and amateur sculptors who exhibit and sell them on the day. Its organizers put it at roughly 2,000 exhibitors and more than 30,000 attendees.

The catch sits in those three words, on the day. Much of what appears there is made in small runs for that event alone. Miss it and there is no restock waiting, only resale.

How does a reveal at a show reach Singapore?

In steps, and each step can lose you the item.

1. A figure is revealed at the show, often as a prototype with no price attached.
2. A preorder window opens, with a stated opening and closing date on the maker's own page.
3. The window closes.
4. The item ships months later, usually to a Japanese address, from a Japanese store.
5. It reaches you here through an importer, or through resale at a markup.

Step three is the one people miss. The preorder window is often your only shot at retail price. Good Smile Company, to take a maker most collectors already own something from, states a preorder period on each product page and warns that orders placed after it may not qualify. Once that window shuts, nobody promises a restock.

What should you do with all this?

• Watch the award announcement on Wednesday 19 August. It tells you what will be everywhere for months.
• If you happen to be in Tokyo that weekend, go on Saturday or Sunday, and buy the ticket in advance to save 200 yen.
• When a reveal catches you, look up the preorder closing date before you look up the price. The date is the part that expires.
• For anything tied to a single event, decide early. Resale is the other route and it always costs more.

One we bring in ourselves

The Chiikawa Swaddle Mascot Charm is this whole article in miniature. It is a Bandai capsule line, listed on the official gashapon schedule with its own release week, so the date is public well before it lands. There are four designs, one per capsule, and the machine picks, so that part is never yours to decide. What a Japanese release schedule does not do is get the thing to Singapore. That is the step we handle. Ask on TG: @bazumart.

The short version

Tokyo opens the ordering process to you for two days at the end of August. Shanghai keeps its doors shut to shoppers, and Wonder Festival sells its small runs in a single day. Each one tells you how fast you need to move, and whether you need someone in Japan moving for you.

If you take one date away from this, take Wednesday 19 August. The award winners announced that day are what shops will push for the rest of the year, so you get to read the list before the shelves fill up.